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Bringing Rigour to AI Predictions
Jaime Sevilla, a 28-year-old Spanish researcher, is spearheading efforts to bring rigorous, evidence-based forecasting to the future of AI. Drawing parallels with climate science, Sevilla aims to introduce systematic analysis to AI development through his nonprofit research organisation, Epoch AI. Founded in 2022, Epoch AI investigates historical trends in AI to predict future advancements and their societal impacts. Sevilla’s initiative is crucial, given the divergent opinions from industry leaders about the timeline for human-level AI systems.
Epoch AI’s Foundation and Mission
Sevilla’s journey began in 2020 during his Ph.D. studies in artificial intelligence at the University of Aberdeen. Realising the lack of systematic analysis in AI trends, he paused his academic pursuits to focus on this gap. Teaming up with like-minded individuals, including his first volunteer-employee Pablo Villalobos, Sevilla created a comprehensive database documenting critical inputs for significant AI models. This work, widely recognized and cited by governments and policymakers, provides a foundational resource for understanding AI’s rapid progress and its potential regulation.
Rapid Progress and Achievements by Epoch AI
Epoch AI’s research has already influenced significant AI regulatory efforts, such as the E.U. AI Act and President Joe Biden’s Executive Order on AI. The organisation’s database has become an invaluable tool for policymakers. Looking ahead, Epoch AI aims to predict future AI impacts based on historical data trends, highlighting the potential societal changes comparable to the industrial revolution. Despite the inherent uncertainties, Sevilla hopes his work will inspire broader, evidence-based thinking and decision-making regarding AI’s future.
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